MORNING BID AMERICAS-Cloudy Amazon, Payrolls and A Flatter Curve
A take a look at the day ahead in U.S. and international markets from Mike Dolan Another forecast miss from a U.S. megacap integrates with care ahead of January's work report to keep a cover on stocks into Friday's open - with buoyant long-dated Treasuries squashing the yield curve to its flattest for the year.
Just like Microsoft and Alphabet over the past couple of weeks, Amazon disappointed Wall Street late Thursday as concern about cloud computing splashed income and revenue projections and sent its stock down 4% overnight.
The most recent underwhelming outlook from the "Magnificent 7" leading U.S. tech companies check an otherwise upbeat S&P 500, with questions about heavy invests on expert system ignited again by the development of China's cheap DeepSeek model.
The DeepSeek buzz, by contrast, continues to fire up Chinese stocks. They included another 1%-plus earlier on Friday in spite of ongoing issues about a mounting Sino-U.S. trade war and Monday's due date for Beijing's vindictive tariffs.
But the day's macro occasions will likely take precedence, with the release of the January U.S. work report and long-term revisions of past task production.
Job growth likely slowed to 170,000 in January from just over quarter of million the prior bio.rogstecnologia.com.br month, partly restrained by wild fires in California and winter across much of the country.
Those distortions include a more problem to the readout, which will consist of yearly benchmark modifications, new population weights and updates to the seasonal modifications.
The week's sweep of other labor market reports, nevertheless, do indicate some cooling of conditions - with task openings falling, layoffs increasing and weekly unemployed claims ticking higher.
With the Federal Reserve already trying to parse the effect of President Donald Trump's brand-new economic policies, payroll distortions simply cloud the photo even further.
And as Fed officials insist they can wait and see for a bit, Fed futures remain trained on two more rates of interest cuts this year - resuming about midyear.
The Treasury market is more urged though - sustaining the early week's sharp drop in 10-year yields into today's tasks report and seeing the 2-to-10 year yield curve compress to the flattest it's remained in 6 weeks.
Helping the long end today has been reassuring signals from the Treasury's quarterly reimbursing report that a "terming out" of debt auctions to longer maturities is not yet in the works, as lots of had actually feared.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has also insisted the brand-new government's focus would be on getting long-lasting rates down instead of pressing the Fed to reduce prematurely.
Reuters analysis shows Trump has positioned hangs on 10s of billions of dollars in congressionally-approved spending for jobs across the U.S. that vary from Iowa soybean farmers adopting greener practices to a Virginia railway growth.
Bessent also doubled down on his view the administration wants to retain a "strong dollar" policy. But he colored that with a sideswipe. "What we wear ´ t desire is other nations to weaken their currencies, to control their trade."
But with the Fed on hold, main banks all over the world continued easing rates of interest apace this week - partially on issues a trade tariff war will compromise their economies.
With a sharp cut in its UK development forecast, the Bank of England cut its policy rate by a quarter point on Thursday - with 2 of its policymakers electing a larger half point reduction. Sterling compromised at first, however has actually steadied since.
Mexico's main bank likewise cut its interest rate by 50 basis points on Thursday - saying it could cut by a similar magnitude in the future as inflation cools and after the economy contracted somewhat late last year.
The European Reserve bank, meantime, is expected to launch its updated price quote of what it views as a "neutral" rates of interest later Friday.
That is essential as it informs the ECB dispute about whether it requires to cut rates listed below what considers neutral to revive the flagging euro zone economy. It's currently seen around 2% - 75bps below the standing policy rate.
In thrall to the payrolls release, the dollar index was stable on Friday. Dollar/yen briefly notched a new low for the year, however, as Bank of Japan tightening up speculation simmers.
In Europe, stocks stalled near record highs as the heavy incomes season there unfolded.
Banks there have a been a standout winner today and again on Friday. Danske Bank, Denmark's most significant loan provider, was up 7.1% after it published record annual revenues and launch a new share buyback program.
Key advancements that must supply more direction to U.S. markets later Friday: * U.S. January employment report, University of Michigan February consumer survey, December customer credit; Canada Jan employment report; Mexico Jan inflation * European Central Bank updates its estimate of "R *" neutral interest rate * Federal Reserve Board Governors Michelle Bowman and Adriana Kugler speak; Bank of England Chief Economist Huw * U.S. corporate incomes: Cboe Global Markets, Fortive, Kimco Realty * Japan Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba check outs United States
(By Mike Dolan, editing by XXXX mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com)